At the start of the year, the "experts" made a lot of predictions about the U.S. economy and what to expect in 2009.  Some said housing would rise Some said housing would fall Some said mortgage rates would rise Some said mortgage rates would fall And nobody predicted just how big the government's stimulus package would be. Now, on June 30, with the year officially half-over, it's as good a time as any to remember that people are much better at interpreting the past than predicting the future.  Economists can make educated guesses about the future, but they're guesses ...

This week’s Crain’s Chicago Business (PDF) is reporting that the relative cost of owning vs. renting is swinging back in favor of home ownership across the U.S. and in Chicago. The Chicago real estate market is already seeing signs of this with an increase in pending home sales. There are great expectations that June’s sales numbers will finish off what should be a strong second quarter. Realtors® see this trend continuing as many of their buyers have reengaged and are actively looking at properties and going forward with offers. Tire kickers have become purchasers. As sellers have ...

Mortgage markets improved last week on the heels of benign economic data and a non-inspired press release from the Federal Reserve.Aside from trader momentum, 3 market-moving events helped set the pace last week: Housing data hinted at strength Jobless data showed softness The Fed said growth appears on-track The combination of the three created volatility that -- for just the second time in the last 8 weeks -- worked in favor of rate shoppers. Mortgage rates changed a lot last week, but they trended lower overall. Already, however, markets are looking ahead to this week's ...

If you only saw the headlines this week, you may have missed another positive sign in the housing market.According to the Census Bureau, the supply of newly-built homes for sale fell to 10.2 months in May, its lowest level in 10 months. Unfortunately, the New Homes Sales story wasn't positioned as a positively by the press.  Instead, the most common headline on the data read "New Home Sales Dip 0.6%" with many journalists referring to the figures as "weak" or "disappointing". Only, that's not completely true. See, one of the nice elements of the monthly New Home Sales report ...

The housing market got another dose of good news yesterday.  According to the National Association of REALTORS, the number of homes sold in May increased for the third straight month and the national housing supply fell by 5 months. Furthermore, first-time home buyers are accounting for nearly one-third of the market activity. But, before we declare a bottom in housing, it's important that we remember the First Rule of Real Estate: All Real Estate Is Local National housing statistics like Existing Home Sales are painted with a very broad brush. They lump disparate locales such as ...

The Federal Reserve begins its scheduled two-day meeting this morning. It's one of 8 scheduled meetings for the Federal Open Market Committee this year. When the FOMC meets, it discusses the financial and economic conditions around the country and, when appropriate, the group makes new policy meant to speed up or slow down the economy. The main tool for reaching this goal is the Fed Funds Rate and, earlier this year, the FOMC lowered it to "near-zero" percent in an attempt to stimulate growth. But the Fed has other tools at its disposal, too, not the least of which is its $1.25 ...

Mortgage markets finished out the week unchanged last week but that's not to say that mortgage rates stayed flat.  From day-to-day, mortgage rate shoppers were on a veritable roller coaster. Monday and Tuesday, rates dipped Wednesday and Thursday, rates surged Friday, rates retreated Overall, conforming mortgage rates carved out a half-percent range this week.  This caused fit for home buyers in need of a rate lock, and homeowners interested in refinancing. Rates changed quite a bit from day-to-day, and even from hour-to-hour at times. This is the same brand of mortgage ...

Mortgage rates are suffering through another volatile week, causing problems for rate shoppers and home buyers.After falling Monday and Tuesday, mortgage rates surged Wednesday and Thursday.  The momentum higher appears to be carrying into the weekend, too. There are several data-related reasons for the mortgage market's spastic activity this week: Unemployment claims fell Leading Economic Indicators rose Inflation readings are tame But while each of the data points above fueled mortgage rate volatility, it's not the data that's making markets move the most.  It's the ...